COP is the world’s largest trade show on climate solutions. That’s why its numbers have grown every year, according to Richie Merzian who’s just been appointed as chief executive officer of Clean Energy Investor Group.
He tells Murray Hogarth in this interview that COP is where the whole world will show up – “not just national governments, but major investors, cheque book in hand, ready to invest.” The biggest opportunity, he says, is just to the north of us, Asia, where the majority of the world’s emissions are coming from. “In my mind a Future Made in Australia is a future made with Asia and the COP is the platform to help us do that.”
Since his youth, Richie Merzian has been on a fast-track career in climate policy and diplomacy, emphasising investment and international relationships.
He’s career shuttled between the climate and environment movement, the Australian government’s foreign affairs and trade department, the progressive think-tank world with The Australia Institute and industry advocacy with the Smart Energy Council.
Now he’s stepped up to his first chief executive role with the Clean Energy Investor Group. Merzian spoke to The Fifth Estate’s Murray Hogarth about the issue that dominated the role just left, as international director for the SEC, the opportunity for Australia to host the UN’s big annual climate summit in two years’ time, jointly with Pacific Islands nations.
That summit’s official title will be the 31st Conference of the Parties (COP) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), making the 2026 event “COP31”. Last year’s two-week summit, COP28, was hosted by the United Arab Emirates in Dubai; COP29 is in Azerbaijan this November; to be followed next year by COP30 in Brazil.
With Australia’s bid currently locked in a contest with Türkiye for the hosting rights, which include the presidency of UNFCCC for a year, Merzian has campaigned aggressively for a quick outcome in Australia’s favour, before the end of this year. This would give an Australian-Pacific COP, most likely in Sydney, a two-year lead-in to successfully deliver a global showcase event – but there’s still a lot of politics to play out.
Australia has been an active UNFCCC participant from its outset in the 1990s, but has never hosted a COP. Why so?
Australia’s international ambitions, while great and grand initially, we’re always calibrated with the economic perception that to address climate change would be at Australia’s expense. So Australia has played a relatively constructive and engaged role, but always with that caveat. The economics have changed and COP31 is a real opportunity to showcase a new version of Australia, one that’s embracing the transition and sees its trade and its security interests tied into that transition.
I know you weren’t in Tonga in late August for the Pacific Islands Forum, but you’re very engaged in the region. What is the mood for the idea of a joint COP31?
There is cautious interest. Almost putting aside the Australian component of it, the Pacific nations struggle to get to these meetings, which are almost always on the other side of the world. They don’t have the resources to really bring large delegations and to cover the negotiations at the depth that most other nations do. While at the same time, we know the consequences of action or inaction through the negotiations will have major repercussions for these nations. So the Pacific has lobbied hard for 1.5C as the global goal, and they’ve lobbied hard for consideration of loss and damage, to deal with the unavoidable consequences as they build up. This is a key moment for them, so they want it in the region. Overall, I think it’s been welcomed, but with a note of caution.
There is still genuine tension in the Pacific around Australia’s performance and international positioning when it comes to climate action
In recent climate conferences and COPs, the language has now started turning towards the need to phase-out fossil fuels. Straight up. So this is the tension you have here. When will Australia, once and for all, say, “Okay, we get it. The world’s going to net zero. Net zero means no more fossil fuels. We will set a date for when we will stop opening up new gas and coal mines.”
There’s no getting around it, by 2026 at COP31 that’s going to be fair and square on the agenda
Whether it’s formally on the agenda or whether it’s still in everyone’s minds, hosting a COP means that the whole world will be here, and they’re not just going to be here judging you according to how well you follow the rules. They’re going to judge you based on your moral leadership, and that’s what Australia will have to account for.
Brazil in 2025 is meant to be one of the “big COPs”, like Paris in 2015 (COP21) and Glasgow in 2021 (COP26)
It’s one of the high-level political leader events. Next year’s COP is where every country will have to submit a new target for 2035, and so the focus will be mainly on that global ambition and what that means for every nation. And right now, we’re not on track to avoid dangerous climate change by keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees. That’s what we need to do. That’s what next year is about. And if that fails, all the more important that you have leadership the year afterwards through Australia and the Pacific to bring that home.
But Australia is still in a contest to host in 2026, right?
It needs to be a Western country that hosts it in 2026. The competing bid is from Turkey. It’s not a credible bid. Turkey is not an active player in the UN space, in the climate space, and its previous attempts to host other meetings, like the Convention on Biological Diversity, even after it secured it, it decided to pull out at the last minute. So it doesn’t really have a track record of nailing these types of events or doing them justice. However, it’s a consensus-based process, so Australia and Turkey need to figure out how to come to an agreement about the host in 2026 because the clock is ticking.
Timing is important
We need, collectively, at least a two year runway to make the most of it. This is a huge undertaking in terms of the logistics, but also in terms of the leadership and the diplomacy, and the initiative and the engagement. Australia has been so inwardly focused on climate change, and our domestic “climate war” has deprived us of a good understanding and good engagement with the international community on climate. That’s what we can resurrect, but we need the time to do it.
Australia’s climate change minister Chris Bowen is being very cautious around the Turkey bid, saying we have to be respectful of UN processes. Is that okay?
Look, yes, you have to respect the process. What I would like to sees the Australian government doing everything it can to lock this bid in as soon as possible. And I hate to point it out, but if this was Mathias Cormann’s job as head of the OECD, then the Australian government, would roll out the red carpet, would pull in the private jet, would do everything it can to tie up deals and get that support and lock it in.
If this was making sure the Great Barrier Reef was not listed on the endangered list by UNESCO, they’d do everything that they could to roll this out. I want to see the Australian government spend the diplomatic capital necessary to have this done and dusted this year. Because this is a top priority for our country, it’s top priority for the region, and we need time to do the best job possible.
But it’s still under the radar here, isn’t it?
Look at the kind of current debate we’re having on energy. It’s inane, and so we unfortunately, don’t have the maturity as a nation and as a population to engage on these opportunities on the merits. Instead, it falls into this rather base “Culture War”, and that’s part of the problem.
Politically speaking, is this the worst of times to have to make this decision, literally in the run-up to an election in the first half of next year?
Yes and no. At the end of the day, you need leadership, and there’s always going to be questions raised, there’ll always be some opposition. But leadership is what you need to land this, to make it work, to sell a vision. We can’t wait for a unity ticket amongst all the political parties. Climate change doesn’t have that privilege.
It’s a stand up and be counted moment for the Albanese government?
I certainly think so. And with the prime minister in the Pacific recognising that climate change is their number one security threat, not China, but climate change, then this is our opportunity to show solidarity. The Coalition also recognised that climate was the number one security threat in the region. It signed the Pacific’s Boe Decleration in 2018, so now we need to follow through. We stand alongside our Pacific family. That is leadership. That’s my theory. But obviously I’m a passionate proponent of this idea.
How big a factor is the US presidential election this November in Australia’s comfort zone for hosting COP31?
It’s certainly a factor. The US government has supported Australia’s bid publicly. Australia sees climate change, and so does the US, as one of the key areas within the new bilateral compact. It’s right up there with security. And so this aligns very much with the current US administration. If the US administration changes, obviously that will have flow-on effects. But this isn’t the first time that will happen. In 2016, when Trump came in (as US President), and decided to pull out of the Paris Agreement, Australia remained engaged. Australia continued to contribute. Why? Because the rest of the world decided to step up rather than step back.
Just to be clear, the UN doesn’t absolutely require that a 2026 host be announced in Azerbaijan this year, correct? But two years lead-in is highly desirable?
That’s the recommended lead-in from the UNFCCC That’s mainly because that gives you the space to do a good job. Azerbaijan was only given a year because it was agreed at the last COP in Dubai, and you can tell. You can see the result of trying to rush to make this work.
Taking it on in 2026 clearly requires very substantial investment, and it also brings all this global scrutiny on to Australia and the Pacific Islands region. What’s the business case for it?
This is a huge economic opportunity. The federal government has a bold plan for a Future Made in Australia that builds smart energy solutions and industries required in a net zero world. Well, the COP is also the world’s largest trade show on climate solutions. That’s why its numbers have grown every year. The whole world will show up here, not just national governments, but major investors, cheque book in hand, ready to invest. And the biggest opportunity is just to the north of us. Asia is where the majority of the world’s emissions are coming from. We know the world is going to move to net zero. What role will we play, and how do we position ourselves in 2026 to make that happen? In my mind a Future Made in Australia is a future made with Asia and the COP is the platform to help us do that.
It sounds like investment is the biggest theme in this space?
There is a race right now to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030. We need to replace every coal power station on the grid in Australia, no one is building a new one. So how do we attract investment for clean energy to make that transition at speed and scale? That’s the real opportunity and challenge. The last thing we want is to see another publicly funded coal power station extension like in NSW. My hope is that we can fast-track large clean energy projects to be the first major economy to host a COP with a majority of our electricity from renewables. That would be amazing.
Is there nonetheless a real danger that there’s just going to be a lack of political courage to stand up and be counted?
I think anyone who wants to see this country change for the better worries about that. But you have to remain an optimist if you’re going to work on climate change. And what makes me most optimistic at this stage is not the state of the “politics”, it’s the state of the “economics”, the fact that the cheapest power you can make right now is on your rooftop, and we have a cost-of-living crisis where energy prices are high. What’s that doing? It’s allowing those who have the capital to invest in solar, with the prices coming down, and the role of the government then is to help those who don’t have the capital to access solar. Economics is on our side. The change is coming, we just need to make sure everyone can be part of the journey.